The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has slightly revised its oil demand growth projection for 2025, trimming it to 1.3 million barrels per day from its earlier forecast of 1.4 million bpd.
This adjustment, highlighted in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for April and cited by Reuters, marks a 150,000 bpd decline from last month’s figures.
The revision comes amid increasing global economic uncertainties, notably spurred by U.S. trade policies.
The price of OPEC’s basket of twelve crude oils dropped to $66.25 a barrel on Monday, down from $70.85 the previous Friday, as calculated by the OPEC Secretariat.
The recent trade tensions, driven largely by United States President, Donald Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs, including those affecting Nigerian exports, have dampened economic optimism.
Although the tariff regime has been temporarily suspended for 90 days, it has already ignited a trade war, driving up consumer prices, weakening living standards, slowing manufacturing, and disrupting international trade flows.
OPEC, in its report, also lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.1% to 3.0%, and for 2025 from 3.2% to 3.1%.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” the report noted.
Despite the downward revisions, OPEC’s demand outlook remains on the more optimistic side compared to other industry projections.
Unlike the International Energy Agency, which predicts oil demand will peak this decade due to a shift toward cleaner energy sources, OPEC maintains that demand will continue to rise for years. The IEA is expected to update its forecast on Tuesday.
Following the release of the report, oil prices held their gains with Brent crude hovering near $66 a barrel, buoyed by U.S. tariff exemptions. However, prices have still declined more than 10% this month.
In terms of supply, OPEC+ crude production dipped in March by 37,000 bpd to a total of 41.02 million bpd, driven partly by output cuts in Nigeria and Iraq.
Although the group plans to increase production in both April and May, Kazakhstan again breached its OPEC+ target, boosting output in March by 37,000 bpd to 1.852 million bpd—well above its January-March quota of 1.468 million bpd.
Kazakhstan’s energy ministry acknowledged the excess in output but pledged to meet its quota in April and compensate for the overproduction, according to the Interfax news agency.
A source told Reuters that Kazakhstan’s oil production declined in the first half of April compared to March, though it remained above its agreed limit.
This development comes after eight OPEC+ member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, held a virtual meeting on April 3, 2025, to assess the market outlook. The group agreed to a combined production adjustment of 411,000 bpd in May 2025, incorporating three months’ worth of planned increments.
OPEC+ indicated that the planned increases could be paused or reversed depending on market developments. The measure also allows participating countries to accelerate their compensation for previous overproduction.
The eight countries are expected to reconvene on May 5 to determine output levels for June.
