The World Bank has projected that poverty in Nigeria will increase by 3.6 percentage points over the next five years, continuing to rise through 2027.
This projection was made in the Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, which was released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The report paints a bleak outlook for poverty reduction in Nigeria, indicating that despite some recent economic gains—particularly in the non-oil sector during the last quarter of 2024—structural challenges tied to the country’s dependence on natural resources and its national fragility are likely to impede progress.
The World Bank’s analysis highlighted that Nigeria, along with other resource-rich and fragile nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, will face a worsening poverty situation. In contrast, non-resource-rich countries in the region are expected to experience faster poverty reduction.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
The report also underscores that Sub-Saharan Africa continues to hold the highest rate of extreme poverty globally. As of 2024, 80 per cent of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people lived in Sub-Saharan Africa. Within the region, half of the 560 million extreme poor were concentrated in just four countries.
In comparison, other regions had far fewer extreme poor: South Asia accounted for 8 per cent, East Asia and the Pacific 2 per cent, the Middle East and North Africa 5 per cent, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3 per cent.
According to the report, resource-rich countries, such as Nigeria, are projected to lag behind in poverty reduction due to the slowing of oil prices and weak fiscal structures. Conversely, non-resource-rich countries in the region are benefiting from high agricultural commodity prices, driving stronger economic growth despite fiscal pressures.
The report noted, “This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.”
In light of these projections, the World Bank recommends that Nigeria and similar economies focus on improving fiscal management and building a stronger fiscal contract with citizens in order to promote inclusive economic development and long-term poverty alleviation.
