The International Monetary Fund has lowered its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025 to 3.0 per cent, citing a decline in global crude oil prices.
This revised estimate, released in the April 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook, represents a 0.2 percentage point drop from the Fund’s previous forecast of 3.2 per cent.
The updated report was unveiled on the sidelines of the ongoing IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings taking place in Washington, D.C.
According to the IMF, weaker oil revenues have impacted the economic outlook for Nigeria and other major economies in sub-Saharan Africa, prompting adjustments to their growth trajectories.
“For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4 percent in 2024 to 3.8 per cent in 2025 and recover modestly in 2026, lifting to 4.2 per cent. Among the larger economies, the growth forecast in Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices,” the IMF stated.
The report also revised South Africa’s growth outlook downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, attributing the downgrade to a “weaker-than-expected 2024 outturn, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, the intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”
Additionally, the IMF disclosed a significant adjustment for South Sudan, noting a 31.5 percentage point downward revision for 2025, linked to delays in resuming oil production due to a damaged pipeline.
The IMF’s latest projections signal persistent challenges for commodity-dependent economies in the region, reinforcing the need for policy reforms and economic diversification to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
