Canada will hold a pivotal election on Monday, following a campaign that has been energised by United States President Donald Trump’s threats.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is favoured to win after assuring voters that he has the experience necessary to stand up to the United States.
A victory for Carney’s Liberal Party would mark one of the most dramatic political turnarounds in Canadian history.
On January 6, when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation plans, the Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by more than 20 points in most polls, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre appeared almost certain to become Canada’s next premier.
However, in the weeks that followed, Trump’s chaotic launch of a trade war and his repeated comments about absorbing Canada into the United States outraged Canadians, who responded by booing the American anthem at sporting events and cancelling US travel plans.
When Carney replaced the unpopular Trudeau on March 14, he anchored his campaign firmly around the Trump threat, stating that the US “wants to break us, so they can own us.”
The 60-year-old Carney, who has never held elected office but previously led the central banks of both Canada and Britain, assured voters that his global financial expertise made him the ideal candidate to defend Canada against Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign.
“Pierre Poilievre has no plan to stand up to President Trump,” Carney said on Friday.
“Unlike Pierre Poilievre, I’ve managed budgets before. I’ve managed economies before, I’ve managed crises before. This is a time for experience, not experiments,” he added.
Trump’s influence and the dramatic leadership change within the Liberals unsettled Poilievre, a 45-year-old who has served in parliament for two decades.
Nevertheless, the Conservative leader has tried to refocus attention on domestic issues that fuelled public anger towards the Liberals during Trudeau’s decade in office, particularly the rising cost of living.
“The trajectory we are on after this lost Liberal decade, were it to continue, would lead to more despair,” Poilievre said on Thursday.
Although Poilievre has also criticised Trump, he blamed Canada’s weakened economy under Liberal leadership for leaving the country vulnerable to US protectionism.
Analysts suggest Poilievre’s combative political style, characterised by bombastic partisan attacks, has alienated voters who might otherwise be inclined to support the Conservatives, including many women.
While polls predict a Liberal government, the race has tightened in its final days. The CBC’s poll aggregator at various points showed the Liberals leading by seven to eight points nationally. However, on Friday, it recorded Liberal support at 42 percent, compared to 38 percent for the Conservatives.
One critical factor aiding the Liberals has been the declining support for the left-wing New Democratic Party and the Quebec separatist Bloc Québécois. In past elections, stronger performances by these parties have historically undercut the Liberals in key provinces such as Ontario and Quebec.
Advance voting figures also suggest heightened voter engagement. A record 7.3 million of Canada’s 28.9 million eligible voters cast ballots during the Easter weekend—a 25 percent increase compared to advance voting in 2021.
Montreal voter Nathalie Tremblay told AFP that this election feels “definitely more important” than previous ones because of “everything that is happening in the United States.”
“I think everyone is concerned,” she said, expressing hope that “a strong government” will be in place after Monday’s vote.
Meanwhile, Simon-Pierre Lepine voiced his concerns to AFP about “ten more years of backtracking” under the Liberals, accusing them of plunging Canada “into a financial hole.” The 49-year-old entrepreneur said he believes “the Conservatives traditionally do much better” in managing the economy.
According to McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland, Conservative efforts to “change the subject of the campaign” away from Trump have largely fallen flat.
Political analyst Tim Powers agreed, noting that the campaign was not the one the Conservatives had initially planned.
They had anticipated “there’d be more of a debate around affordability and all of the things that they were scoring points on,” Powers explained, adding that Poilievre “envisioned a campaign where Justin Trudeau would be his opponent.”
However, he described it as “a strange campaign,” filled with unexpected developments. Nevertheless, he said the Conservatives would make a final push over the weekend to energise their base and maximise turnout.
The winner of Monday’s election is expected to be known within hours after polls close.
