The death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday morning at the age of 88 has sparked a fresh wave of global mourning and reflection. As the Catholic Church prepares to lay to rest one of its most influential modern leaders, attention is now turning to a delicate and pressing question: who will succeed him?
Twelve years after becoming the first Latin American pope, Pope Francis leaves behind a Church that is more global, more diverse, and more reflective of the modern world than ever before. His successor will not only inherit a spiritual mantle, but also a rapidly shifting global context: political tensions, climate change, the rise of secularism—and a laity increasingly vocal about the Church’s direction.
Following papal tradition, the College of Cardinals will gather for a papal conclave in the Sistine Chapel—a centuries-old ritual cloaked in solemnity and secrecy. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. Of the 240 cardinals worldwide, 138 meet this requirement, including 110 appointed by Pope Francis himself.
To prevent undue influence, the conclave is sealed off from the outside world. Daily, up to four rounds of secret ballot voting are conducted until a two-thirds majority is reached. After each vote, the ballots are burned: black smoke means no decision has been made; white smoke signals that a new pope has been chosen.
This process could take days—or, as history reminds us, much longer. The 1271 conclave that chose Pope Gregory X famously dragged on for nearly three years. In recent memory, however, conclaves have concluded swiftly. The elections of Pope John Paul II, Pope Benedict XVI, and Pope Francis each lasted only a few days.
For centuries, the papacy has been dominated by Europeans, particularly Italians. But under Pope Francis, the face of the Church has shifted. His appointments reflect the Church’s global growth, particularly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America—regions now home to more than two-thirds of the world’s 1.39 billion Catholics.
Among the names most frequently mentioned as potential successors are Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Both are prominent African voices, rooted in a deep commitment to peace, social justice, and doctrinal conservatism. Their rise within Church leadership, shaped by experiences in regions marked by political instability and economic hardship, has given them a moral gravitas admired by many.
From Asia, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines stands out. Often compared to Pope Francis for his gentle humility and focus on the poor, Tagle has held key roles within the Vatican and is widely respected across ideological lines. If elected, he would be the first Asian pope in modern history—and a symbolic choice that acknowledges the dynamic growth of Catholicism in the Global South.
Other contenders include Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State and seasoned diplomat; Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, a staunch traditionalist with strong links to Eastern Christianity; and Italy’s Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, a figure known for his pastoral outreach and peacemaking efforts.
Though technically any baptised male Catholic can be elected pope, the trend has long been to choose from among the cardinals. Increasingly, there’s talk within Church circles of selecting someone younger and more physically resilient, particularly after witnessing Pope Francis’s struggle with health challenges in his final years.
The youngest eligible cardinal elector is just 45 years old: a Ukrainian cleric currently based in Australia. While it’s unlikely that someone so young would be elected, the broader sentiment underscores a desire for a pontiff who can engage energetically with a fast-changing world while remaining anchored in the Church’s spiritual and moral traditions.
Regardless of where the next pope comes from, the expectations are immense. Many believers hope for a continuation of Francis’s reforms—on issues such as climate advocacy, interfaith dialogue, and inclusion—while others long for a return to more conservative interpretations of doctrine.
In choosing the next leader of the world’s largest Christian denomination, the cardinals are not just electing a spiritual father, but also a moral figurehead whose influence will echo far beyond the walls of the Vatican.
As the white smoke eventually rises, one question may signal a new era for the Church: Will the next pope come from the Global South?
